Event host and moderator Susannah Streeter examines the huge blow dealt to the hospitality industry resulting from the Covid 19 crisis.

‘’On the face of it, your local pub or bar may look like it’s turning a pretty penny. Outside terraces are heaving and booking advance for a favourite table might seem like an obstacle course, as you negotiate an early reservation to get ahead of rival customers.

As far as the hospitality corner is concerned, it appears the roaring twenties may have well and truly begun and the pandemic is in the rear view mirror. But scratch the surface and there is still a long way to go before the pub and bar sector can celebrate with a cheers to good health.’’

Even though publicans could start serving customers outside from 12^th April by the beginning of May many were still highly unsure what the future will hold despite the rapid vaccine rolls outs.

According to data out this week from the ONS, almost a fifth of bars and pub businesses said they had low confidence that they would still be operating in three months’ time, while less than a quarter said they were highly optimistic about their prospects for survival (23.9%). This compared to just under half (43.8%) of all other businesses who say confidence is high.

It’s not surprising that so many publicans have a glass half empty perspective on their prospects.

In December, as the third wave swept over the country and time was called on the industry

all pubs and bars surveyed said profits have fallen by more than 50%. Even by early May a third still said profits had halved, despite the phased re-opening. Many have had to spend big chunks of revenue they have earned on outdoor seating arrangements to capture outdoor trade, and endure the headache of liaising with local authorities for access to roads and pavements.

In November, in the bleak winter of the crisis, 90% of staff were on furlough in bars and pubs compared to 11% on average for all other businesses. Recovery has been slow, even by the beginning of May just over half of the pubs and bars surveyed had more than half of staff off on furlough, compared to just over 8% for all other businesses.

There may be queues now forming outside popular venues, but despite a bounce back in customer demand, job uncertainty still remains relatively high in pubs and bars. 59% of businesses in the sector there were not going to make staff redundant over the next three months, compared to 81% in all other businesses.

The share price of a string of bar and pub companies is mirroring the muted cheer among publicans as the sector reopens. JD Wetherspoon still needs a good dose of tonic as it is languishing around 13% below pre-pandemic levels, as social distancing rules continue to disrupt its business model of pulling in high volumes of punters, while keeping prices low. Revolution bars is still down a whopping 65% compared to February 2020, even though its forecast a strong recovery this summer. It’s announced plans to raise through a rights issue to try and reduce its hefty debt pile. Pub chains Marston’s is also 11% lower compared to pre-pandemic levels, after falling to a £105 million pre-tax loss in the 26 weeks to April 3^rd, with lockdowns clearly hitting very hard. But it’s counting on staycations and the euros to draw in the seated crowds and boost its fortunes over coming weeks. Fuller Smith and Turner’s shares are also still down 6% compared to pre-pandemic levels and results out on Thursday should give an indication on just how well business is rebounding.

Investors in bar and pub group Mitchell and Butlers and The Restaurant Group, which owns Brunning and Price pubs, appear to have a glass half full attitude with their respective shares prices already having staged a good recovery compared to pre-pandemic levels.

But with staff shortages and potentially higher prices now looming for the sector, the menu ahead for management is one of hard graft and continued uncertainty, trying to cater for changing customer appetites amid confusion over when social distancing rules will finally be relaxed.’’